Abstract– India’s foreign policy has adapted to a policy of Non-Alignment since Independence but as it is rightly said that “No Nation exists in a vacuum”, India’s non-aligned foreign policy is also affected by several international players which includes independent nations, organizations or pressure groups. One of the key players that has and continues to affect India’s foreign policy is the United States of America. The dynamic change in US’ political leadership also brings several changes in the sustaining of India-US relations. US being a dominant superpower, any political change affects India’s independent Foreign Policy towards US and towards the world. In 2016, the 45 th US president, Donald J Trump assumed power in US which resulted in many dynamic effects in the India-US relations due to the pro-American ideology of the President. Further the terminology of ‘Trumpism’ or ‘Trumpisation’ became prevalent due to the extreme Americanization of his policies. In this article, we shall explore the evolution of Indo- US relations along with a shift in India’s Foreign Policy. We shall get an in-detail analysis of how the upcoming US Presidential elections 2024 will adversely affect India. Our research has put emphasis on Trump’s tenure and ideologies along with a strong possibility of Trump returning to power in 2024 which again shall bring changes in the Indian system. This article will also include our prediction and analysis if Trumps assumes the office in 2024.
Keywords– India’s foreign policy , Donald J Trump , Trumpisation , Indo-US relations.
India’s foreign policy since independence has gone through various transitions. The newly independent Indian state was inclined towards socialist regime because of the widespread poverty in the nation. The leadership in the majority was also in support of this. Although India being a non-aligned nation, this inclination towards the socialist nations was also visible. These inclinations included the pro-Chinese policies and slogans like ‘Hindi-Cheeni Bhai-Bhai’ and the pro-Soviet instinct that was seen in the first two decades before signing the friendship treaty. The Soviet Union too reciprocate through their extended support in 1962 Sino-Indian War and 1965 Indo-Pak war. Russia and India can be termed as very good friends even till now but the socialist inclination that was seen in the first few decades that kept India away from the west is a changed picture now. India now stands as a strong and strategic western counterpart to counterweight Chinese aggression in the region. Over the last six and a half decades, India has dramatically increased its global influence, primarily through diplomacy and trade, establishing it as a major player in global politics. The evolution of India’s foreign policy also resulted in dramatic shifts of friends and foes on the nation state. Once a trusted friend, China now stands as one of the biggest threats to India’s territorial as well as cultural integrity. But through evolution and transition the Indo-US relations have significantly accelerated, where there were and still are differences due to India’s close relations with Russia, but they stand together as one of the most strategic bilateral partners in the international arena. Relations between India and the US have improved substantially over the last 15 years, having been fraught with mistrust and tension during the Cold War. The bilateral relationship underwent a significant transformation when the US first agreed to ‘work to achieve full civil nuclear energy cooperation’ with India in July 2005. India was granted a waiver by the Nuclear Suppliers Group to commence civil nuclear trade in September 2008, and the landmark India–US civil nuclear cooperation agreement (‘the 123 agreements’) was reached the following month, transforming the bilateral relationship. India-US relations have evolved in various circumstances under various political leaders like George W Bush, Barack Obama or the current president Joe Biden. However, our focus point shall be the tenure of 45 th American president Donald J Trump, considered as a pro-American extremist leader with the policy of America at the top, who served from 2016-2020. During his tenure, America went through several political and economic transitions. However, during Trump’s tenure America’s relations in the world order also sustained some changes. It was attributed that Trump’s election as the President would affect India-US relationship in four main areas: bilateral relations (encompassing trade, investment, immigration, and technological cooperation), the Asian balance of power, counterterrorism, and global governance. But the common point of co-operation between India and America remained the Chinese threat which helped both the nations to stand together even in Trump’s tenure. To dive in deep into the ‘Trumpisation’ effect in Indo-US relations, it is however important to get an in detailed analysis of Trump’s tenure and the transitions that occurred in the international system which in place hampered India’s foreign policy.
1.The Rise of Trump as an ideology.
There have been 2 main instances when the great economists have failed with their predictions for the world economy. The first one dates to the economic crisis of 2008, when everyone speculated the things were moving in a right direction but happened to be otherwise. And the second time, when everyone predicted that the election of Donald J Trump as the president of US would throw the world into an economic recession and cause severe market crash. But what happened could be termed as the beginning of Trumpisation in the world arena. The dollar index rose by 5.6 percent, the highest ever in the last 14 years. On the third day of him assuming power, he terminated the Trans-Pacific partnership of 12 nations. On the seventh day, he became critical of the immigrants in America. In June , 2017 , he withdrew from the Paris climate accord. The country that was the pioneer of globalization across the world was now focusing on extreme Americanism and all that mattered to Trump was America and just ‘America’. Trump chose a way of traditional allies and said that Russia should be moved back in G8. On the economic terms, the market rose 38 percent in 22 months, an economic growth of 3.1 percent when everyone expected a recession in just the first three quarters of his tenure, creation of 2,23,000 jobs per month with an 18-year low rate of unemployment at just 3.8 per cent. The entire expertise of the world failed against the policy making of Trump. With the drastic development in America in the first few months of his tenure, he officially announced his arrival and the arrival of ‘The Trump Era’. He established that a powerful leader could prove the so-called economic thinkers wrong. Trump retaliated the Chinese aggression in the most up-front way possible. No American President stood against China except Trump. Trump put supreme emphasis on the dollarization of the world with his tactics of withdrawing dollar from the international market and the results were very clear, the value of dollar achieved some landmark heights. Trump made himself very clear through his policies and administration that he is not the leader for globalization but a leader for Americanism. In his tenure he was considered a radical leader that was liked by many but also hated by many. Trump did not care of this; he was very much sure of his ideology that he is not here to please anyone but to take America at its best. This ideology of Trumpism became the supreme way of how America moved in the four years of his leadership.
2.India-US relations during Trump’s era
Donald Trump’s election at a time of growing and converging interests between India and the United States necessitates a re-evaluation of several aspects of Indian domestic and foreign policy. We have identified four area namely bilateral relations (encompassing trade, investment, immigration, and technological cooperation), the Asian balance of power, counterterrorism, and global governance which we have already mentioned earlier. India and US being the largest democracies in the world, have transformed their bilateral relations after the cold war era. Washington and New Delhi have forged closer ties with economic cooperation, a civilian nuclear agreement, closer defense ties, including big ticket military purchases, and counterterrorism cooperation. In realist terms it can be said that both the nations have forged closer ties and have formed a balance of power, especially in the matter of the Indo-Pacific. Trump’s primary focus included the areas of middle east, north-east Asia and China. Against all the odds that were due to Trump’s Americanism, India-US relations flourished greatly under the Trump era due to shared concerns over China and a strong rapport between the Indian Prime Minister Modi and Trump. This bilateral relationship existed on a good note despite all the chaos that were due to the past bilateral ties. However, it was predicted that India might have to shift its interests toward other bilateral partners in Trump’s era like China, Japan, Russia etc. But throughout Trump’s tenure, both India and the US were engaged in regular exchanges of high-level political meetings to sustain a healthy political as well as economic relationship. The trade relationship between India and US went on to the highest point in 2018 with a double-digit growth. The US-India trade balance was at a 3.8% growth in favor of India in 2018. These were the positive signs that were being seen in Trump’s era, however, these are not on a good note since beginning but were bought back on track through bilateral talks and partnership on various issues. The dynamic leadership of both Trump and Modi could be centered down to the ideology of Nationalism and Nation first. However, Trump’s dis-interest or ignorance towards the climatic issues of world, which was seen by him withdrawing of the 2016 climate accord caused a sense of disapproval in a developing country like India. As the US presidential elections 2024 are approaching, with Trump being the most potential candidate, these things could affect the bilateral partnership. We shall also discuss the upcoming elections in another section of this article.
3.US Presidential Election 2024 and future speculations.
The United States of America had a peaceful power shift from Trump to Biden in 2020. The tenure of Joe Biden can be criticized and appreciated on various aspects on the verge of its completion. America is to go into the presidential elections in November 2024 and what is speculated is the return of Donald J Trump as the president of USA. Donald Trump has been declared as the presidential candidate from the republican party. With a tenure of break, Trump is set to return to active politics by the end of this year is what the international media has almost declared. The assassination attempt on Trump in July’24 is being regarded as a clear marker of Trump’s win in the presidential election. India and USA are an active strategic partner in the international order. However, it will be crucial to predict Trump’s preferences and inclination in the new tenure if he assumes the office. The countries have already started to prepare against a ‘Trump Foreign Policy’ It is therefore very clear that a hint of his old tenure and policies applicable at that time might also return to power in the upcoming tenure. With China being the focus of concern, the Indo-US relations might not take a shocking turn. It can also be speculated that the bilateral partners look to strengthen themselves in the Indo-Pacific region. Trump and his party believe that it is American failure that the war between Russia and Ukraine is still ongoing, and no result has been taken out since the last 4 years. India being a closer tie to Russia has always been a point of distress between both the nations. India will look for visa improvements but seems difficult in Trump’s era due to his Americanism nature. Where other nations are looking to safeguard themselves from Trump’s ideology, India will look forward to enhancing this strategic partnership with America. And of course, China’s threat caters to the interests of both the nations in maintaining a strategic partnership. Even the US must accept the growing national power India and developing a strategic partnership will work in favor of both. Both the countries will look forward to co-producing and co-developing that will enhance the trade relationship along with defense exchanges as well as cultural exchanges. However, it will be crucial to analyze Trump’s policies this time if he assumes power because his last tenure marked some of the landmark transitions that America and the world order went through.
Conclusion
The shift that we saw in India’s foreign policy after the cold war era can be termed as an important decision which helped India foster to newer challenges of the globalized west and make newer friends in the arena. The developing strategic relations of India and US have catered to the China challenge in every way possible and resulted in the sustaining of a healthy relationship between both the nations. The ideology of Donald J Trump could be termed as the best ideology for an American citizen but have fostered several challenges in the international arena. India’s relations with the US have had ups and downs in his tenure but India look forward to sustaining the strategic partnership in his possible second tenure. This article tried to cover these various aspects from transition to a supreme leader and analyze some main aspects of the bilateral relationship between the two largest democracies of this world.
References
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Author: Prateek Aggarwal – Student of Political Science in Delhi University and Research Assistant in Team MND